In the latest episode of Facts vs Feelings, Ryan Detrick, Chief Market Strategist, and Sonu Varghese, VP, Global Macro Strategist, dig into the surge in market volatility and what they believe is truly behind it. They explore shifting rate-cut expectations from the Fed, how mixed economic data is shaping the outlook, and why recent remarks from Fed officials have rattled markets. Ryan and Sonu also break down the sharp risk-off moves in crypto, the resilience of sectors like healthcare and commodities, and more.

Key Takeaways

• Fed Tone Shift: Fed officials struck a more cautious tone after their October meeting, sharply lowering expectations for a December rate cut and contributing to market weakness.
• Labor Data Uncertainty: With government shutdown-related data gaps, the Fed is flying partially blind, making upcoming payroll numbers pivotal in determining whether cuts resume.
• Crypto as Risk-Off Signal: Bitcoin and Ethereum have seen steep declines since last month, acting as a clear risk-off indicator and spilling into tech-adjacent equities.
• Sector Divergence: Healthcare (especially biotech), utilities, and value stocks have held up better during the pullback, while small-cap growth and speculative tech have lagged sharply.
• Commodities Showing Strength: Despite volatility, key commodities like copper, natural gas, silver, and jet fuel are meaningfully higher year-to-date—signs that global activity is holding up better than headlines suggest.

Connect with Ryan:

• LinkedIn: Ryan Detrick

• X: @ryandetrick

Connect with Sonu:

• LinkedIn: Sonu Varghese

• X: @sonusvarghese

 Questions about the show? We’d love to hear from you! factsvsfeelings@carsongroup.com

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